The route to focus on achieved within the EV market

James Vickery, head of policy, ZEV regulations on the Office for Zero Emission Vehicles (OZEV), a part of the Department for Transport, explores how the UK’s motor retail industry overall can have faith that the primary yr of the ZEV Mandate was successful. 

Lets discuss those SMMT December and 2024 automobile stats?!

• 31% BEV market share for December – up from 19.7% in Dec 2023
• 19.6% BEV Market share across 2024 – up from 16.5% in 2023
• Strongest BEV yr
• 2nd strongest BEV month by % (after Dec 2022)
• 2nd strongest BEV month by volume (after Nov 2024!)

But let’s tackle the major talking point – that 19.6% is under the ZEV Mandate goal of twenty-two%.

The way in which the mandate actually works is ‘have enough credits and allowances to cover your non-ZEV sales – and this yr we’ll provide you with allowances without spending a dime covering 78% of your overall vehicle sales’.

Anyone going beyond 78% non-ZEV/falling beneath 22% ZEV needs to seek out other routes to earning/owning allowances and credits.

Enter the non-ZEV > ZEV transfer mechanism.

To chop a really long story short, any manufacturer that has reduced their non-ZEV emissions in comparison with 2021 levels can convert that saving into ZEV credits.

How did the UK market as a complete perform?

Using the SMMT stats and press release –
⛽ We all know the typical non-ZEV automobile in 2021 was 135g CO2
🚗 2024 non-ZEV average = 126.9ish
🚗 Variety of non-ZE cars sold? 1,570,808 – so about 12.7m gCO2 saved in comparison with 2021 based on WLTP test levels.
⚡ Across your entire UK market, what number of ZEVs does that CO2 saving equate to? An extra 76,189!

Now for the sake of accuracy, I even have simplified this.

• There may be a cap on individual conversions that some manufacturers will hit.
• Some will select not transfer in any respect.
• Some manufacturers may have the power to transfer greater than this rough estimate assumes, attributable to the best way the 2021 baseline works.
• And that is using UK figures, when the ZEV mandate only applied in GB in 2024 (not Northern Ireland).

However the major takeaway is that with the flexibilities included – the automobile market hit the 22% goal overall.

That may not to say there is not more that will be done, or that the regulation itself cannot higher support manufacturers in meeting the 2030 and 2035 phase out dates.

The consultation on the 2030 definition and on potential amendments to the ZEV mandate is under way here –  have your say before 18 February!

Writer: James Vickery, head of policy, ZEV regulations on the Office for Zero Emission Vehicles (OZEV)