Used LCV market under pressure amid weak demand

Latest LCV registrations edged up in February but ongoing economic uncertainty, constrained supply and cautious fleet investment proceed to shape a used van market where demand is selective and costs remain under pressure, reports Ken Brown, LCV Valuations Editor, Cap HPI

At 14,641 units, February 2026 latest LCV registrations increased by 165 vehicles (+1.1%) compared with February 2025.

While this modest increase is welcome, the continuing weakness in latest LCV registrations largely reflects ongoing economic uncertainty, which continues to weigh heavily on business confidence. It seems that many fleet operators are deferring investment in latest vehicles unless it is completely obligatory.

The conflict in Iran has already had a direct impact on energy prices, most notably motorized vehicle fuel, which is able to inevitably add further pressure to the associated fee of living.

At the identical time, the Bank of England has warned that as much as two base rate increases could also be required this 12 months, potentially increasing the associated fee of car finance, while inflation is predicted to rise to three.5% or higher.

Taken together, these aspects present a difficult outlook for the motor industry as an entire, further undermining consumer confidence and increasing operating costs across the sector.

^{Used light industrial vehicles}

Cumulative guide price movements 3 years/60k (all sectors)

April used LCV average guide price movement -1.2%

This chart highlights the sharp fluctuations in guide price movements between 2020 and 2025.

Prices peaked 2020 and 2021 through the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, before declining to more sustainable levels by late 2023. The upturn in prices is clearly evident in 2025 because the market reacted to stock shortages.

Represented by the purple dashed line, the cumulative downward movement to this point this 12 months is -2%.

Market price changes

The next charts illustrate the typical market price changes as reflected by guide price adjustments.

These changes represent a mixture of price revisions and adjustments to the mileage depreciation rates of individual model ranges.

The Minibus and All‑Terrain Workhorse sectors have experienced essentially the most significant downturn in market prices, while only marginal changes were seen across the remaining sectors.

As all the time, the devil is within the detail, so we recommend using the guide to verify prices for specific models, as values can vary considerably by model range and at individual CAP ID level.

The next charts are based on our March research data. They represent each the distribution of used LCVs sold across mileage bands from 1,000 as much as 300,000 miles, and the sales performance inside each of those mileage bands.

By comparing the 2 charts, which share the exact same horizontal axis, it’s clear that sales performance closely mirrors the concentration of vehicles throughout the research data. On this month’s research we noticed a decrease in sales performance for some vehicles that had covered over 90,000 miles leading to some marginal adjustments to mileage depreciation rates.

Used LCV Wholesale Market – Views from the block

Auction officials we spoke to over the past month reported little change in market conditions. The important issues remain the continued shortage of used stock and continuing uncertainty over future supply.

While some suggested the March plate change could prompt a considerable influx of de‑fleeted and part‑exchange vehicles, others expressed their doubts and warned against expecting any significant uplift. Whatever the results are of the March plate, they’re unlikely to be immediate, and it could possibly be well into April before we begin to see vehicles appear.

Conversion and guide performances were mixed.

Auction sale footfall and online bidding stays high, and plenty of trade buyers, especially the larger ones, proceed to pay a premium to secure the suitable stock.

Some auction houses reported higher provisional sales that required extra work behind the scenes to convert, indicating a lean towards a seller’s market with vendors holding out for top prices.

Others felt there was a widening two‑tier market where vehicles in reasonable condition for his or her age and mileage proceed to sell well, while those with damage and/or requiring mechanical repairs are increasingly hard to shift.

Battery Electric LCVs (BEVs)

As uptake of recent BEV LCVs continues to extend, growing numbers of used examples are actually reaching the top of their first operating cycle and entering the used LCV market. From a valuation perspective, this can be a positive development, because it provides safer sample sizes inside our research data, enabling us to set guide prices that more accurately reflect current used wholesale market conditions.

Earlier-generation BEV LCVs were typically dearer, offered limited driving ranges, and required longer recharge times compared with the later models now appearing in our data. Ongoing technological advances, coupled with improvements to charging infrastructure, mean that range anxiety and access to recharging facilities have gotten less of a barrier.

That said, the transition away from petrol and diesel internal combustion engines (ICE) has been driven less by consumer demand and more by political determination to implement the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate with a view to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Under the mandate, manufacturers are required to fulfill strict sales targets for compliant vehicles or face penalties for each non‑compliant vehicle sold.

This 12 months’s requirement that 24% of a manufacturer’s total sales should be ZEV compliant puts considerable pressure on the LCV sector. In practice, compliance can only be achieved by manufacturers effectively forcing dealers and enormous fleet customers to incorporate a proportion of compliant vehicles inside their order mix, no matter their suitability or cost and distorting the natural demand patterns.

In contrast, the transition throughout the used LCV market stays, for now, driven by user alternative. On condition that the overwhelming majority of LCVs are purchased and operated for industrial purposes, it’s difficult for a market segment focused on productivity and profitability to totally embrace BEVs and the broader green initiatives.

Where there stays an ample supply of ICE vehicles within the used market, which provide greater flexibility and convenience, it’s comprehensible why many operators proceed to favour traditional powertrains to unravel their transport needs.

Over time, we are going to inevitably see a gradual reduction in the quantity of ICE LCVs entering the used market, nonetheless, that time still appears a way off.

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