Electric vehicles (EV) are demonstrating rapid improvement in reliability, with a 12 per cent lower likelihood of failure for every successive 12 months of production, in accordance with recent research by a multinational team of researchers.
The team which has published its findings in Nature, analysed nearly 300 million UK Ministry of Transport (MOT) test records, documenting the ‘health’ of vehicles on Britain’s roads between 2005 and 2022.
This extensive dataset enabled the team to estimate vehicle longevity and supply a comprehensive comparison of survival rates across different powertrains, including internal combustion engine vehicles (ICE) and battery electric vehicles (BEV).
The study revealed that while early BEVs were less reliable than their ICE counterparts, rapid advances in battery technology, manufacturing processes and vehicle design have dramatically improved the reliability of newer BEVs, allowing them to attain comparable, and in some cases superior, lifespans.
“If the trends estimated on this study persist, the whole cost of ownership (TCO) and environmental benefits of upcoming BEV models could far exceed previous estimations,” said the team.
Nonetheless, battery longevity stays a key consideration. Lithium-ion batteries dominate current EV technology, with warranties typically covering 8 years or 100,000 miles.
While Tesla asserts its batteries are designed to outlast the vehicle, while Nissan reports that just about all batteries it produced over the past 12 years remain in use, the team insists that to totally realise the advantages of an extended BEV lifespan, substitute batteries have to be reasonably priced relative to the residual value of BEVs without their original batteries.
They warn that if battery substitute costs don’t fall quickly enough, owners may decide to prematurely write off their BEVs, which could skew the comparison of BEV longevity against ICE vehicles and result in the emergence of ‘EV graveyards’ in China, where EVs are abandoned before reaching the tip of their mechanical lifespan as a consequence of the failure of recent automotive manufacturers.
To handle these issues, the team recommend robust regulation and the event of a circular economy for batteries.
This Article First Appeared At www.am-online.com
