The brand new LCV market enjoyed a 1.7% end of 2025 boom in recent registrations, writes Ken Brown, LCV valuations editor at Solera Cap HPI.
There have been 315,422 recent LCVs registered in 2025, that’s 36,412 fewer recent LCVs, representing a ten.3% decline available in the market in comparison with 2024, and 5,578 units in need of the SMMT’s end of 12 months forecast,
Registrations were down month on month from January to November. Nonetheless, in December, the shortest month of the 12 months for LCV sales activity and with many key staff taking prolonged Christmas breaks, by some means there was a miraculous +1.7% increase in registrations in comparison with 2024.
Ideally, this late surge in December reflects several large fleet deals being finalised, which can be a welcome development for the used LCV wholesale market as de‑fleeted vehicles begin to filter through the auctions.
A more concerning possibility is that it signals the nearly-new sector is about to face a wave of pre-registered stock being advertised at heavily discounted prices.
That said, that is unlikely to affect guide prices unless it starts to influence trade sale market prices.
Without that shift, the guide will proceed to reflect the real wholesale market slightly than fluctuations in retail promoting activity.
Views from the auction block
The opinions and market insights we gain from talking to auction officials on the sharp end of remarketing are invaluable and form a vital a part of our research process.
We share a vested interest in ensuring that guide prices reflect the market as accurately as possible. As we start the brand new 12 months, now we have scheduled over 100 meetings with our auction contacts. We appreciate the chance to satisfy with them recurrently and highly value the expertise they contribute to the guide.
Auction officials we’ve spoken to report a busy begin to the brand new 12 months, with particularly strong bidding on clean vehicles requiring minimal preparation. Driven by the continued shortage of stock, larger LCV dealers are paying what one contact described as “eye‑watering amounts,” while smaller buyers are finding it increasingly difficult to compete.
Trade buyers have gotten increasingly cautious about vehicle condition. Despite the limited availability of used LCV stock, many are reluctant to buy damaged units, especially those needing substantial bodywork and mechanical repair work. Parts shortages, prolonged lead times, and rising repair costs are regularly cited as key deterrents.
Consequently, the worth gap between clean vehicles and people with damage continues to widen, creating a transparent two‑tier market.
Competition stays strong for clean vehicles requiring minimal preparation, while damaged stock is proving far harder to maneuver. Traders with in‑house bodyshop and paint facilities, nonetheless, could also be well positioned to capitalise on this shift by acquiring damaged vehicles at a reduction and refurbishing them more cost‑effectively.
Buyers are also showing scepticism toward vehicles that also carry a portion of the manufacturer’s warranty, as a result of prolonged franchise dealer workshop lead times for warranty repair work and, in some cases, a scarcity of technical expertise inside certain dealer networks to resolve issues promptly.
Wet‑belt engines are proving especially difficult to sell, given the high cost of belt substitute and the danger of consequential damage. Oil pick‑up blockages, oil starvation and total belt failure remain significant concerns for buyers assessing long‑term reliability.
This isn’t nearly repair costs. Long established, reputable used LCV dealers are also reluctant to purchase them, as doing so could risk damaging their business status.
The Top 20 ICE (internal combustion engine) model ranges, ranked by sales volume, offer a transparent snapshot of the used LCV sector.
With a mean performance of 99.4% against guide prices, demand from trade buyers remained notably strong.
The Top 20 BEV (battery electric) model ranges, ranked by sales volume, achieved a mean performance of 94.8% against guide, continuing their trend of under‑performance.BEVs remain price‑sensitive, and trade buyers are still cautious about buying costlier stock that would occupy spaces on their forecourts, when ICE models might be turned around way more quickly.
Although prices on this sector have shown signs of stabilising, the supply of sufficient ICE models within the used LCV market continues affect retail buyer demand for BEV models. All of the while this example continues, we will some extent of price fluctuation within the BEV sector.
Looking ahead
Despite the doom, gloom and wider economic uncertainty, demand for used LCVs stays healthy, as we’ve seen so repeatedly before during recessions and economic downturns. Retail demand appears to be taking care of itself for now, while the provision of used stock into the trade stays a big challenge.
That said, and for now at the least, guide prices remain stable. There may be a dubious balance between supply, which could shift in either direction at any time.
The timing of huge de-fleets, the lifeblood of the used LCV wholesale market, is becoming harder to predict. Leasing firms tell us that contracts are being prolonged on an ad‑hoc basis, and there’s a growing sense that operators have realised, partly consequently of the pandemic, that modern vehicles are more durable and might be run cost‑effectively for for much longer periods.
Writer: Ken Brown is LCV valuations editor at Solera Cap HPI.
This Article First Appeared At www.am-online.com
