Data reveals carmakers most vulnerable to US tariffs

With the imposition of 25% tariffs on US automobile imports, data from Jato Dynamics highlights the exposure of varied carmakers to the brand new trade policy.

In 2024, the US saw the sale of 16.1 million latest cars, of which roughly 6.3 million were imported from markets including Mexico, Canada, the European Union, the UK, Japan, and Korea.

Starting last week, these imports are subject to the brand new tariffs, with an extra 25% levy on imported automobile parts to take effect on May 3. Though the 25% tariff is applied universally, its impact will vary significantly amongst automobile manufacturers.

Detroit’s “Big Three” – General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis – sold around 1.85 million imported light vehicles within the US last yr, making up 13% of their global sales.

Compared, Japan’s largest brands – Toyota, Honda, and Nissan – collectively sold 17.9 million vehicles globally in 2024, with 1.53 million of those imported to the US, accounting for 9% of their total global sales. Germany’s Volkswagen Group, BMW Group, and Mercedes-Benz collectively saw 7% of their global sales come from the US market.

While the tariff is designed to assist boost domestic carmakers, it’s going to even have negative repercussions for them. Attributable to a more limited global reach than their Japanese and European counterparts, US manufacturers rely heavily on domestic sales. Consequently, the brand new tariffs on cars imported from countries like Mexico, Canada, and Korea can be particularly felt by these firms.

Brands most affected

While few manufacturers will emerge unscathed, certain brands are more exposed to the tariffs than others. Mazda, Subaru, and General Motors are particularly reliant on the US market.

In 2024, Mazda sold 1.28 million vehicles globally, with 343,000 of them imported into the US. Subaru’s US sales accounted for a big 71% of its global volume, although imports still made up 26% of its total sales. General Motors, heavily depending on the US market, imported 18% of its total global sales in 2024, the best proportion among the many top five global automakers.

Amongst premium brands, Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) faces notable exposure. One in 4 Land Rover vehicles (24%) were imported to the US in 2024, the third highest after Infiniti (41%) and Lexus (32%). Consequently, JLR has suspended US shipments while it assesses the impact of the brand new tariffs on UK-made vehicles.

Volkswagen faces challenges

In 2024, the US accounted for lower than 10% of Volkswagen Group’s global sales, providing it with a level of protection in comparison with other manufacturers. Nevertheless, Jato Dynamics points out that 80% of its US sales come from vehicles made abroad, meaning it still faces challenges under the brand new tariffs.

Felipe Munoz, global analyst at Jato Dynamics, remarked, “The US is an important marketplace for 14 of the 18 non-Chinese global carmakers. While Volkswagen’s overall exposure is lower, the brand will need to keep up its presence within the US to retain its global status.”

Munoz added: “It’s likely that carmakers corresponding to Volvo, Hyundai-Kia, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Stellantis, Toyota, Nissan, Subaru, and General Motors could have to ramp up production within the US in response to those latest trade terms. The US market is simply too significant to disregard.”