Were it not for the pressures placed on automobile brands by the ZEV Mandate targets the UK’s recent automobile market in 2024 could be seen as quite a hit story.
That is what Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, told Automotive Management in a briefing on Friday, ahead of the official publication of 2024’s results on Monday.
Preliminary data for the 2024 year-end shows the brand new automobile market ended at 1.953 million units, up 2.6% year-on-year, of which 382,000 were zero emission battery electric vehicles. That result gave BEV a record market share of 19.6%.
But that record performance, driven by significant discounts and incentives which the SMMT says are “unsustainable”, was still almost 3ppts in need of the Government-set goal of a 22% share, even after a final push that created a 31% BEV mix in December’s market to spice up the tally. That signifies that some carmakers’ national sales firms here are liable to be fined, if they can’t pool, trade or borrow zero carbon credits from other vehicle manufacturers which have exceeded the goal.
“Some industry figures have suggested the natural level of demand is around 11% to 12 % so that’s the reason the market was having to be pushed. It’s clear that demand has not matched the assumptions behind the mandate when it was conceived,” Hawes said.
When the mandate was first conceived the forecast for this 12 months was 23.3% BEV share.
The goal increases to twenty-eight% BEV share this 12 months. That can require a sales uplift of 46% – to seek out customers for greater than 550,000 recent electric cars if the whole market volume stays flat.
“Industry has pulled every lever to try to achieve this goal, with manufacturer discounting totalling greater than £4.5 billion in 2024, an amount that will not be sustainable in the long run. Billions of kilos of investment in recent technologies and products over the past decade have delivered a record 132 ZEV models to the UK market, up 38% since 2023 to account for a 3rd of all models available, with a mean range of virtually 280 miles – greater than two weeks’ of driving for most individuals,” said the SMMT.
The two.6% growth in 2024’s recent automobile market was driven purely by the fleet sector, including leasing operations, rental firms and OEMs’ own fleets, which accounted for 60% of all registrations. Hawes is worried that recent cars usually are not attracting the everyday numbers of personal buyers, who traditionally would account for half of the demand, and said that is in fact against an economic backdrop but in addition “add in a level of confusion about what style of vehicle to purchase after the messages from government over the past two years to grasp why there is a reason to carry off”.
He noted pointedly that buyers are actually on their fourth prime minister because the 2030 deadline for the tip of petrol and diesel automobile sales was abruptly announced by Boris Johnson in November 2020. That was adjusted to 2035 by Rishi Sunak, and now Kier Starmer wants it restored to 2030.
SMMT data shows fewer private buyers bought a brand new automobile in 2024 than in 2020, when the COVID pandemic closed down the industry for 3 months.
BEV and PHEV cars carry a price premium and SMMT data shows that non-public motorists are picking petrol primarily, and hybrid secondly. Buyers’ low interest in BEVs is hampering the market’s growth, Hawes warns, and incentives similar to halving VAT, delaying the premium VED changes and equalising the VAT rate on public charging to the 5% on domestic power.
An industry consultation is under way on possible changes to the ZEV Mandate and how the UK Government’s goals to finish ICE automobile sales in 2030 might be achieved.
The prices of business within the UK has led Stellantis to announce the closure of its vehicle assembly plant in Luton.
The DfT consultation closes in mid-February and the Government then allows itself 12 weeks to reply. Hawes said the industry deperately must know the consequence sooner, however it’s unlikely.
“We can be pushing for clarity in order that, at the least, within the second half of the 12 months you may have a few of planning what the necessities could also be,” Hawes added.
This Article First Appeared At www.am-online.com
