Retail and wholesale used-vehicle supply will remain constrained in the approaching yr, driven by lower production and fewer lease maturities returning to the market, although lease maturities will rise over the yr.
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The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) closed out December at 205.5, marking a 0.4% increase in wholesale used-vehicle prices in comparison with December 2024 and a modest 0.1% gain month over month, in accordance with figures released Jan. 8.
The year-end data reflect a market that has mostly stabilized, with non-seasonally adjusted prices up 0.5% yr over yr, following a slight 0.4% decline from November. The long-term average for December is usually flat, underscoring the market’s return to seasonal norms.
“Consumer spending trends showed signs of a slowdown in December, as affordability concerns caused many to drag back on the spending reins, translating to depreciation trends catching up a bit in wholesale markets over the month,” said Jeremy Robb, interim chief economist at Cox Automotive, in a Jan. 8 news release. “As we moved into the vacation period, we saw seasonal patterns in used retail sales slowing down, while recent retail sales increased against November trends but remained lower in comparison with 2024.”
For the reason that March low of 202.6, the MUVVI has consistently remained above this threshold throughout 2025, with wholesale values supported by sustained retail demand. Retail used-vehicle sales in 2025 were higher yr over yr by 2%, in accordance with an initial estimate from Cox Automotive’s vAuto Live Market View. In December, sales were down by lower than 1% yr over yr, ending the yr on a stable note.
Used-Vehicle Values Stable in December; Demand Stays Healthy
The seasonal adjustment to the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index reduced the change for December, as non-seasonally adjusted values declined at a better rate. Non-adjusted wholesale vehicle prices in December were up 0.5% yr over yr, although they declined 0.4% from November 2025. The long-term average monthly move in non-adjusted values is a rise of 0.3% in December.
In December, Manheim Market Report (MMR) prices for the Three-12 months-Old Index declined barely greater than typical for this era, as depreciation trends caught as much as long-term averages. MMR retention increased moderately and stays inside seasonal norms for this time of yr. Meanwhile, sales conversion indicates stronger demand, because the metric is higher than usual for this time of yr.
MMR retention – the typical difference in price relative to the present MMR – averaged 99.6% in December, meaning market prices were nearly in keeping with MMR values in December and were higher than November levels. In comparison with 2024, valuation models were up 60 basis points yr over yr for MMR retention and up 70 basis points from November.
The common each day sales conversion rate at Manheim was 56.8% in December, 4.6 percentage points higher than essentially the most recent three-year average, and up 4.4 percentage points from November. Sales conversion indicates a stronger demand, because the metric is higher than usual for this time of yr.
Used Electric Vehicles Outperform Overall Market in 2025
In December, the Electric Vehicle (EV) Index was up 2.5% yr over yr but down 0.1% from November, when it reached its 2025 peak. Non-EV wholesale values rose 0.4% yr over yr in December. The EV Index posted year-over-year gains for nine straight months to shut the yr.
Across the quarter, luxury vehicles and EVs continued to outperform the broader market. December’s data showed luxury and EV segments leading year-over-year price gains, while compact cars and trucks posted the most important declines.
Used and Wholesale Vehicle Market Forecast and Outlook for 2026
Cox Automotive forecasts retail used-vehicle sales in 2026 to succeed in 20.3 million, down 0.7% from 2025. Sales are expected to say no barely in comparison with the stronger-than-expected 2025 performance. Retail and wholesale supply will remain constrained in the approaching yr, driven by lower production and fewer lease maturities returning to the market, though lease maturities will rise over the yr.
Cox Automotive expects a comparatively normal yr for wholesale values, with the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index projected to rise 2% by year-end 2026. This forecast signals a return to typical depreciation rates and a gradual increase within the EV weighting within the index, which stands at 3.3%. Because the yr progresses, EVs’ influence is anticipated to grow because the variety of EVs returning to the wholesale market increases, reflecting broader shifts within the U.S. vehicle market.
“As we move into 2026, a number of positive indicators are emerging: Recent and used auto loan rates are starting to trend lower, and consumers will soon see increased tax refunds hit their wallets,” Robb said. “As this plays out, we predict to see stronger demand within the auto market because the yr gets underway.”
This Article First Appeared At www.automotive-fleet.com
