Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Increase in September – Remarketing

Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a combination, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) increased 1% in September from August, according the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) released Oct. 6, which rose to 214.3, down 3.9% from a 12 months ago.

“September auction sales bolstered prices through the channel,” said Chris Frey, senior manager of economic and industry insights for Cox Automotive, in a news release. “While there was a little bit of an acceleration from August, we shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves heading into the late fall and winter period. We’re at a crossroads for wholesale, mainly from concerns in regards to the UAW strike’s potentially slowing recent retail sales and moving buyers into the used market. We don’t see that occuring just yet, because it at all times takes time for changes to work through the market.”

Frey said two very different outcomes are possible:

1. One is to see higher prices from an prolonged strike on recent production also showing up at wholesale after which used retail.
2. The second results in little or no change – a strike resolution resulting in price declines at relatively normal rates, or just pausing, thus the wholesale and used retail markets are minimally affected.

“While we have now some modest changes built into our MUVVI forecast, we predict the market mainly reflects balance at this point, relative to what we have now been seeing for much of the last three years,” Frey said. “We typically see only slight upward trends in wholesale values within the fourth quarter, which is why are forecasting our Used Vehicle Value Index to complete down 2.2% for the 12 months.”

The seasonal adjustment contributed to September’s increase. The non-adjusted price in September increased by 0.1% in comparison with August, moving the unadjusted average price down 5.4% 12 months over 12 months.

In September, Manheim Market Report (MMR) values saw below-average weekly declines to start out the month; however the month ended with normal declines in the ultimate week. During the last 4 weeks, the Three-Yr-Old Index declined an aggregate of 1.2%. Those self same 4 weeks delivered a median decline of 1.8% within the years 2014–2019. During September, every day MMR Retention, which is the common difference in price relative to the present MMR, averaged 99.2%, meaning market prices were barely below MMR values.

The typical every day sales conversion rate declined to 55.7%, which was near normal for the time of 12 months. For comparison, the every day sales conversion rate averaged 55.3% in September 2019. The sales conversion rate in September was lower than in August but stronger than in June and July.

The foremost market segments saw seasonally adjusted prices that were mostly lower 12 months over 12 months in September. In comparison with September 2022, vans and SUVs lost lower than the industry, down 2.3% and three.5%, respectively. Compact cars again performed the worst 12 months over 12 months, down 9.9%, followed by luxury down 6.7% and midsize cars down 5.9%. Pickups were up 0.7%, higher than the industry and the one positive year-over-year performer. In comparison with last month, pickups, midsize cars, compact cars, and SUVs gained greater than the industry at 2.1%, 1.4%, 1.3%, and 1.1%, respectively. Luxury lost 0.6% and vans were down 0.9% from August.

Used Retail Vehicle Sales Decreased in September

Assessing retail vehicle sales based on observed changes in advertised units tracked by vAuto, Cox estimates that used-vehicle retail sales in September were down 10% in comparison with August, and the year-over-year comparison with 2022 worsened. Used retail sales are estimated to be down 2% 12 months over 12 months in September, which was the worst performance since June. The typical retail listing price for a used vehicle moved down 0.7% over the past 4 weeks.

Using estimates of used retail days’ supply based on vAuto data, an initial assessment indicates September ended at 47 days’ supply, down two days from 49 days at the tip of August and 7 days lower than how September 2022 ended at 54 days. Leveraging Manheim sales and inventory data, wholesale supply is estimated to have finished September at 26 days’ supply, up someday from the tip of August and down three days from September 2022’s estimate of 29 days.

September’s total new-light-vehicle sales were up 18.5% 12 months over 12 months, with yet another selling day versus September 2022. By volume, September new-vehicle sales were up 0.7% month over month. The September sales pace, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), got here in at 15.7 million, a rise of 14.3% from last 12 months’s 13.7 million and up 2.1% from August’s upwardly revised 15.3 million pace.

Combined sales into large rental, business, and government fleets increased 26% 12 months over 12 months in September. Sales into rental fleets were up 53% 12 months over 12 months, sales into business fleets were up 6.6%, and sales into government fleets were up 38%. Including an estimate for fleet deliveries into dealer and manufacturer channels, the remaining retail sales were estimated to be up 17.7%, resulting in an estimated retail SAAR of 12.9 million, up 1.1 million from last 12 months’s 11.8 million pace, and up 0.3 million from last month’s 12.6 million pace. Fleet market share was estimated to be 13.8%, a gain of 0.6% over last 12 months’s share, but down 1.8% from August’s 15.6% market share.

Rental Risk Prices Mixed, Mileage Down Again in September

The typical price for rental risk units sold at auction in September declined 1.7% 12 months over 12 months. Rental risk prices increased by 1.4% in comparison with August. Average mileage for rental risk units in September (at 51,300 miles) was down 5.3% in comparison with a 12 months ago and down 6.9% from August.

Measures of Consumer Confidence Declined Again in September

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined by 5.2% in September, as future expectations plunged 11.5%; but views of the current situation increased 0.3%. Consumer confidence was down 4.5% 12 months over 12 months following two back-to-back months of decline. Plans to buy a vehicle in the subsequent six months declined but remained up 12 months over 12 months. The arrogance index didn’t fall as much through the pandemic as did the sentiment index from the University of Michigan. Each series declined in August and September after improving in June and July.

The Michigan index declined 2% for the month but was up 16% 12 months over 12 months. The consumers’ view of shopping for conditions for vehicles declined to the bottom level since December with negative trends within the perception of costs and rates. The every day index of consumer sentiment from Morning Seek the advice of also measured declining sentiment in September, because the index declined 2.1% from the tip of August. Gas prices increased in July and August but declined barely in September. The national average price for unleaded gas declined 0.1% in September to $3.82 per gallon, which was unchanged 12 months over 12 months, in response to AAA.