All major market segments experienced seasonally adjusted prices that were down yr over yr in December, though the declines have been mitigated in recent months.
Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a combination, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in December in comparison with November, in keeping with the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) released Jan. 8.
The index fell to 204.8, a rise of 0.4% from a yr ago. The seasonal adjustment reduced the change for the month, as non-seasonally adjusted values declined at a better rate. The non-adjusted price in December decreased by 0.8% in comparison with November, increasing the unadjusted average price to 0.3% yr over yr.
“On the margin, wholesale values declined only a bit greater than usual right at year-end, but when all was said and done, it was our most traditional yr for depreciation trends within the last five years,” said Jeremy Robb, senior director of economic and industry insights at Cox Automotive, in a Jan. 8 news release. “The Manheim Index ended the yr up 0.4% from last yr, below the long-term average increase of two.3%. Market participants experienced a little bit of a roller coaster ride, with values depreciating greater than normal in the primary half but less within the second half, and we ended the yr much closer to longer-term trends. With the tightness of current retail supply, lower lease maturities expected throughout the approaching yr, and the query of tariffs on latest vehicles still up within the air, we expect to proceed to see more normal depreciation patterns in 2025.”
In December, Manheim Market Report (MMR) values saw weekly decreases in every week of the month, with larger declines seen within the back half of the month, consistent with seasonal trends. Through the last 4 weeks, the Three-12 months-Old Index decreased an aggregate of 1.3%, including a decline of 0.5% each of December’s last two weeks. Those 4 weeks delivered a median amassed decrease of 0.5% between 2014 and 2019, indicating that depreciation trends were a bit higher than usual at year-end.
Over the month, day by day MMR Retention, the common difference in price relative to the present MMR, averaged 99.1%, meaning market prices moved away from MMR values this month and were lower against November levels. In comparison with last yr, valuation models were higher by 1.3 percentage points for MMR retention but six-tenths of a degree higher than 2019 levels for a similar period.
The typical day by day sales conversion rate fell to 53.8%, a decline of 1.1 percentage points from last month yet higher than normally seen at the moment of yr. For comparison, the day by day sales conversion rate averaged 51.9% in December over the past three years. Given the vacation period and its effect on sales and offerings, it’s normal to see a seasonal decline in conversion in December.
Vehicle Segment Prices See Small Decreases
All major market segments experienced seasonally adjusted prices that were down yr over yr in December, though the declines have been mitigated in recent months.
In comparison with December 2023, trucks were down the least, falling by 0.5%, with mid-size sedans falling 0.6% and SUVs down 0.7%. Compact cars fell by 1.1% over the period, and luxury performed the worst, falling 1.5% against last yr.
In comparison with the previous month, the truck segment outperformed the industry overall, rising by 1% over the month, while compact cars fell by 0.3%, which aligns with the industry average. The luxurious segment fell 0.5% against November 2024, SUVs declined 0.7%, and mid-size sedans showed the very best decline, falling by 0.9%.
the market by powertrain, electric vehicles (EVs) were higher in November and stronger than the industry average overall, increasing by 3.4%, while non-EVs fell 0.5% over the identical time. Seasonally adjusted EV values for December 2024 continued to point out stronger depreciation trends, although the year-over-year declines have slowed in the previous couple of months, with values falling by 7.6%. Non-EVs were down only 0.5% yr over yr, a bit higher than the general industry average.
Retail Used-Vehicle Sales Were Flat in December
Assessing retail vehicle sales based on observed changes in units tracked by vAuto, Cox estimates retail used-vehicle sales in December were flat in comparison with November and better yr over yr by 13%. A used vehicle’s average retail listing price increased 0.3% over the past 4 weeks.
Using estimates of retail used days’ supply based on vAuto data, a primary assessment indicates December ended at 48 days’ supply, up at some point from 47 days at the top of November and down 10 days from December 2023 at 58 days.
Latest vehicle sales in December were up 2% from last yr, and volume increased 8.4% from November. The December sales pace, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), got here in at 16.8 million, up 0.9 million from last yr’s pace and better than November’s upwardly revised 16.6 million level.
Combined sales into large rental, business, and government fleets decreased 11.6% yr over yr in December. Including an estimate for fleet deliveries into dealer and manufacturer channels, the remaining latest retail sales were estimated to be up 2.1% from last yr, resulting in an estimated retail SAAR of 14 million, up 6.3% from last yr’s pace and up from November’s estimated 13.7 million level. Fleet share was estimated to be 13.3%, down from last yr’s 14.1% share.
Rental Risk Price and Mileage Results Were Mixed Against Last December
The typical price for rental risk units sold at auction in December decreased 0.1% yr over yr. Rental risk prices also fell by 2.6% in comparison with November. Average mileage for rental risk units in December (at 51,700 miles) rose 12.3% against last yr’s monthly level. For December, the common mileage of the rental unit was also higher, by 6.1% from November 2024.
Measures of Consumer Confidence Were Mixed in December
- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined 7.2% in December, far worse than the small gain expected; but November’s index was revised higher. Consumers’ views of each the current and the long run declined, with the view of the long run plunging 13.4% to its lowest level since July. Consumer confidence was down 3.1% yr over yr. Plans to buy a vehicle in the following six months also dropped to the bottom level since June from the very best level since May 2019, leaving plans down yr over yr for the primary time in 4 months.
- The sentiment index from the University of Michigan increased 3% in December, which was lower than expected because it saw no improvement from the sooner reading initially of the month. With the ultimate monthly increase, the index was up 6.2% yr over yr. The underlying views of current conditions and future expectations moved in numerous directions, with current conditions jumping but consumer expectations falling. Expectations for inflation in a single yr increased to 2.8% from 2.6%, but expectations for inflation in five years declined to three% from 3.2%. Consumers’ views of shopping for conditions for vehicles increased to the perfect level since April as views of rates of interest were less negative, however the views of costs deteriorated.
- Morning Seek the advice of’s day by day consumer sentiment index saw a slight increase in December after increases in each of the prior five months. The index was up 0.1% for the month, which left the index up 10.4% yr over yr.
- Based on AAA, the national average price for unleaded gas was $3.06 per gallon, up 0.4% in December from the top of November but down 1% yr over yr.
This Article First Appeared At www.automotive-fleet.com
