Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decrease in November – Remarketing

Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mixture, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 2.1% in November from October, in response to the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI), which dropped to 205, down 5.8% from a yr ago, Cox Automotive reported Dec. 7.

“While November’s decline was only barely lower than October’s, the move lower was on our radar, given the standard seasonal downward trend that paused in August and September,” said Chris Frey, senior manager of economic and industry Insights for Cox Automotive, in a news release. “Prices still have a likelihood of rising barely in December, though we’re not predicting an odd spike or trough. Slightly, we’re expecting a measured movement through the top of the month and the yr, which should get us near the January forecast for a 4% year-over-year decline by December 2023. We’ll share our 2024 forecast during our January 8 call, but current views suggest less of a roller coaster in the brand new yr.” 

The seasonal adjustment reduced the November decrease. The non-adjusted price in November declined by 2.9% in comparison with October, moving the unadjusted average price down 7.5% yr over yr.

In November, Manheim Market Report (MMR) values saw above-average weekly declines that steadily declined and approached normal levels of decline for the time of yr. Over the past 4 weeks, the Three-Yr-Old Index fell an aggregate of 1.7%. Those self same 4 weeks delivered a median decline of 1.2% between 2014 and 2019. During November, each day MMR Retention, which is the typical difference in price relative to the present MMR, averaged 98.7%, meaning market prices were below MMR values. The common each day sales conversion rate was regular at 52.3%, which indicates that demand was stable and comparatively strong for the time of yr. For comparison, the each day sales conversion rate averaged 50.8% in November 2019.

The foremost market segments saw seasonally adjusted prices that were lower yr over yr in November in comparison with November 2022:

• Pickups and SUVs again lost lower than the industry, down 4.6% and 5.4%, respectively.
• Compact cars remained the worst performers yr over yr, down 11.3%
• Midsize cars lost 8.3%; vans, down 6.4%; and luxury, off by 6.3%.
• In comparison with last month, compact cars lost lower than the industry at 2%, while luxury surprised with a 0.1% gain.
• Pickups declined by 3.2%, midsize cars were down 2.4%, SUVs were off 2.3%, and vans lost 2.1%, flat versus the industry.

Used Retail Vehicle Sales Decreased in November

Assessing retail vehicle sales based on observed changes in advertised units tracked by vAuto, Cox estimates that used-vehicle retail sales in November were down 7% in comparison with October, and the year-over-year comparison with 2022 worsened again. Used retail sales are estimated to be down 2% yr over yr in November. The common retail listing price for a used vehicle declined 0.5% during the last 4 weeks.

Using estimates of used retail days’ supply based on vAuto data, an initial assessment indicates November ended at 50 days’ supply, down three days from 53 days at the top of October and five days lower than how November 2022 ended at 55 days. Leveraging Manheim sales and inventory data, wholesale supply is estimated to have finished November at 29 days’ supply, up two days from the top of October and down at some point from November 2022’s estimate of 30 days.

November’s total new-light-vehicle sales were up 7.3% yr over yr, with the identical variety of selling days as November 2022. By volume, November new-vehicle sales were up 1.9% month over month. The November sales pace, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), got here in at 15.3 million, a rise of seven.4% from last yr’s 14.3 million and down 0.7% from October’s revised 15.4 million pace.

Combined sales into large rental, business, and government fleets decreased 8.9% yr over yr in November. Sales into rental fleets were up 1.2% yr over yr, sales into business fleets were down 22%, and sales into government fleets were up 8%. Including an estimate for fleet deliveries into dealer and manufacturer channels, the remaining retail sales were estimated to be up 10.2% from last yr, resulting in an estimated retail SAAR of 13.0 million, up 1.1 million from last yr’s 11.9 million pace but down barely from October’s 13.4 million pace. Fleet market share was estimated to be 14.7%, down from last yr’s 16.9% share.

Rental Risk and Mileage Dropped Significantly in November

The common price for rental risk units sold at auction in November declined 4.6% yr over yr. Rental risk prices also decreased by 3.0% in comparison with October. Average mileage for rental risk units in November (at 46,900 miles) was down 13.2% in comparison with a yr ago and down 7.1% from October.

Measures of Consumer Confidence Saw Mixed Trends in November

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased by 2.9% in November, as future expectations improved by 7% and drove a lot of the increase. Consumer confidence was up 0.6% yr over yr. Plans to buy a vehicle in the following six months increased and were up yr over yr. The arrogance index didn’t fall as much throughout the pandemic because the sentiment index from the University of Michigan. Each series declined between July and November, and the Michigan index declined one other 3.9% in November. Nonetheless, that index ended November up 1.5% from the midmonth reading. The ultimate index number for the month was up 8.1% yr over yr. Consumer expectations for inflation increased, with median expectations for inflation over the following yr at the very best level since April. The buyer’s view of shopping for conditions for vehicles declined barely as views of costs were less negative, but views of rates of interest deteriorated.

The each day index of consumer sentiment from Morning Seek the advice of measured only a small change in November, because the index increased 0.1% from the top of October.

Gas prices declined further in November. In keeping with AAA, the national average price for unleaded gas fell 6.2% to $3.25 per gallon as of Nov. 30, which was down 6% yr over yr and was the bottom average price since early January.