Wholesale Used Vehicle Market Prices Fall Below Benchmark Level – Remarketing

Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mixture, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) declined in May in comparison with April, in keeping with the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) released June 7, which fell to 197.3 (12.1%) from a 12 months ago.

The seasonal adjustment to the index reduced the impact on the month, leading to values that declined 0.6% month over month. The non-adjusted price in May decreased by 1.2% in comparison with April, moving the unadjusted average price down 11.4% 12 months over 12 months.

In May, day by day MMR Retention, which is the common difference in price relative to the present MMR, averaged 98.8%, meaning market prices stayed below MMR values. Against April 2024, valuation models moved up half some extent on MMR retention. The typical day by day sales conversion rate dropped to 56.4%, showing that demand declined relative to April, which is seasonally normal for this time of 12 months and includes the Memorial Day holiday week. For comparison, the day by day sales conversion rate averaged 55.2% in May over the past two years.

“While declines in used-vehicle values overall were a bit muted in the primary half of May, they picked up within the latter half of the month,” said Jeremy Robb, senior director of economic and industry insights at Cox Automotive, in a news release. “It’s seasonally normal to get some weakening out there over the Memorial Day weekend. But this month, we experienced a little bit more softening in the ultimate week. As we move into summer, used retail days’ supply stays lower than last 12 months, which could herald more buyers at Manheim in the approaching weeks.”

In May, Manheim Market Report (MMR) values saw weekly decreases that were barely above long-term average declines, although the primary half of the month was higher while the back half was weaker. Through the last 4 weeks, the Three-12 months-Old Index decreased an aggregate of two%, including a decline of 0.7% within the last week of the month, which was the week of the Memorial Day holiday. Those self same five weeks delivered a mean decrease of 1.5% between 2014 and 2019, illustrating that depreciation trends are tracking higher than long-term averages for the 12 months.

YOY Declines By Vehicle Category

The foremost vehicle market segments all experienced seasonally adjusted prices that were down 12 months over 12 months in May.

• In comparison with May 2023, pickups and luxury were the one segments that outperformed the industry, down 11.2% and 11.4%, respectively.
• SUVs declined by 13.2% 12 months over 12 months
• Midsize cars were down 16.3%
• Compact cars were the worst-performing segment, falling by 17.4% against last 12 months.

In comparison with the previous month, pickups show the perfect results, rising by 0.3% against April.  Performing worse than the industry, SUVs fell by 1%, luxury was down 1.3%, midsize cars declined 1.9%, and compact cars fell essentially the most against April, declining by 2.2% for the month.

It’s also essential to have a look at the market by powertrain, which could be done with additional data. Seasonally adjusted EV values for May 2024 were down 16%, while non-EVs were down 11.6% 12 months over 12 months. Regarding values against last month, seasonally adjusted EV values continued to say no greater than the market overall, falling by 2.4% from April 2024, while non-EVs declined 1% over the identical period.

Retail Used-Vehicle Sales Increased in May

Assessing retail vehicle sales based on observed changes in units tracked by vAuto, Cox initially estimates that retail used-vehicle sales in May were up 6% in comparison with April and better 12 months over 12 months by 12%. The typical retail listing price for a used vehicle was unchanged over the past 4 weeks.   

Using estimates of retail used days’ supply based on vAuto data, an initial assessment indicates May ended at 45 days’ supply, down three days from 48 days at the tip of April and down 4 days from May 2023 at 49 days.

Recent-vehicle sales in May were up 4.8% from last 12 months, and volume was up 8.5% from April. The May sales pace, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), got here in at 15.9 million, up 0.4 million from last 12 months’s pace and up just barely from April’s 15.8 million level.

Combined sales into large rental, industrial, and government fleets increased 5.7% 12 months over 12 months in May. Including an estimate for fleet deliveries into dealer and manufacturer channels, the remaining latest retail sales were estimated to be up 6.5% from last 12 months, resulting in an estimated retail SAAR of 13 million, up 0.4 million from last 12 months’s pace, and up from April’s 12.5 million level. Fleet share was estimated to be 17.3%, down from last 12 months’s 18.6% share.

Rental Risk Prices and Mileage Showed Declines in May

The typical price for rental risk units sold at auction in May declined 14.1% 12 months over 12 months. Rental risk prices decreased by 1.2% in comparison with April. Average mileage for rental risk units in May (at 56,500 miles) continues to be down in comparison with a 12 months ago, and the year-over-year trends have slowed. For May, rental unit average mileage was down 3.5% from May 2023. Mileage for units in May was down 4% in comparison with April.

All Measures of Consumer Confidence Were Mixed in May

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased 4.6% in May, as views of each the current situation and the longer term improved; but views of the longer term improved substantially and greater than erased April’s decline in that index. Consumer confidence was down 0.5% 12 months over 12 months. Plans to buy a vehicle in the subsequent six months was unchanged in comparison with April and May last 12 months.
• In response to the sentiment index from the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment declined 10.5% in May against April but was up 17.1% 12 months over 12 months. The median consumer expectation for inflation in a 12 months increased to three.3%, its highest level since November; however the expectation for five years was regular at 3%. The patron’s view of shopping for conditions for vehicles declined to the bottom level since November because the view of rates of interest deteriorated.
• The day by day index of consumer sentiment from Morning Seek the advice of was again volatile in May and declined by 2.1% for the month, leaving the index up by 6.9% 12 months over 12 months.
• Gas prices also fell in May, which can boost consumer sentiment in the approaching weeks. The national average price for unleaded gas from AAA decreased 3.2% from the tip of April to $3.54 per gallon, which was unchanged from the prior 12 months.

Originally posted on Auto Rental News