Latest-vehicle inventory volume was higher at the beginning of November than it was one 12 months ago and at its highest level since March 2021.
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With the UAW strike settled, the automotive industry is determining its impact across all sectors and by way of vehicle supply and pricing.
On vehicle supply, there’s consensus that General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis will find a way to make up for the a whole bunch of hundreds of vehicles in lost production, although this won’t be settled until the primary quarter of 2024.
Regarding supply: “I don’t see much of an impact,” said Jonathan Smoke, chief economist for Cox Automotive, in an email exchange with Automotive Fleet. “We did have some declining or potentially missed orders in September and October by the Detroit 3, but presumably we’ll see increased deliveries in November and December, partially making up for the temporary disruption.”
Latest-Vehicle Inventory, Pricing
Because the strike happened and concluded, vehicle supply was already on the rise: Latest-vehicle inventory volume reached 2.40 million at the beginning of November, higher by greater than 900,000 units from one 12 months ago and its highest level since March 2021, in keeping with Cox Automotive.
Nonetheless, in keeping with Cox, inventory stays 35% lower than in pre-pandemic 2019.
Pricing in the long run, nonetheless, is a unique story.
Ford said its recent UAW contract will raise costs per vehicle by a mean of $900 by 2028. GM said its contract will increase costs by a mean of $500 per vehicle in 2024. How much those costs will translate to retail or fleet buyers is yet to be seen, in addition to strike’s effects on non-Detroit automakers.
“I do think that the labor agreements will contribute to ongoing inflation in vehicle costs,” Smoke wrote to AF. “We’re seeing other brands increase wages in response to the brand new contracts, so this isn’t limited to the Detroit 3. I don’t think that impacts supply per se, but affordability especially in retail will limit the long-run equilibrium level of production and sales.”
Smoke noted that the affordability issue primarily limits retail potential and usually favors growth in fleet over time.
Smoke contends that top vehicle prices will restrict the potential to achieve a 17+ million SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) within the foreseeable future. He believes that 16-16.5 million SAAR is more likely.
SAAR for November was near 15.3 million, up 1 million over last 12 months’s pace but a slight decline from last month’s 15.5 million level, in keeping with Cox Automotive.
While Smoke contends that recent vehicle prices will fall within the short to medium term, as rising supply results in higher incentives and a return to discounting, “Beyond two to 3 years, though, prices will keep rising,” he said.
An ancillary effect of the strike is on initiatives that do not hold the identical profit margins as traditional ICE vehicles. Each Ford and GM are pushing off investments in EVs as consumer demand and charging infrastructure catch as much as EV sales.
GM can even be cutting costs at Cruise, its autonomous technology unit, after regulators suspended Cruise’s testing of driverless vehicles attributable to a crash last month.
This Article First Appeared At www.automotive-fleet.com
