Fuel prices are expected to stabilize through 2026, with diesel averaging around $2.10 per gallon and regular gasoline near $2.82. Analysts say easing crude oil prices and regular production could bring fleets a rare window of cost predictability.
Oil market conditions are expected to ease through 2026 as global inventories construct, and production continues to rise. Brent crude oil prices are forecast by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to average about $62 per barrel in late 2025 and $52 per barrel in 2026, marking a major retreat from recent highs. Non-OPEC+ countries lead production growth, while OPEC+ output steadily increases as earlier production cuts are unwound.
In the USA, crude oil production is projected to stay near record levels, averaging 13.5 million barrels per day, supported by regular output from the Gulf of Mexico. These trends indicate a standstill in lower gasoline and diesel prices through 2026, although OPEC+ supply discipline could moderate the pace of decline. At the same time as global fuel demand continues to grow, efficiency improvements and slow economic expansion in China and Europe are limiting upward pressure on prices. The International Energy Agency expects global oil consumption to rise modestly, about 1 million barrels per day annually through 2026, well below pre-pandemic growth rates.
Projected U.S. Average Retail Fuel Prices (Dollars per Gallon)
| Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | |
| Diesel Fuel | $2.34 | $2.06 | $1.95 | $2.07 |
| Gas (reg. grade) | $3.05 | $2.75 | $2.92 | $2.99 |
U.S. crude oil production has rebounded steadily since 2020, reaching record levels in 2025 before a slight dip projected through 2026.
West Texas crude oil prices peaked in 2022 before trending downward, while U.S crude oil production continued to rise through 2025. Prices are projected to stabilize near $50 per barrel as production levels off at around 13.5 million barrels per day.
This Article First Appeared At www.automotive-fleet.com
